NAIROBI – A majority of Kenyans are bracing for tougher economic times in 2026, according to a new end-of-year survey by Infotrak. The findings paint a picture of a nation grappling with high uncertainty, with 49% of citizens expecting the economy to worsen and only 29% anticipating improvement.
The survey, which captures the public mood as the country prepares to usher in a new year, reveals that concerns over tightening household budgets, job insecurity, and rising costs are widespread. Notably, 30% of respondents said they were unsure about the year ahead, highlighting a significant degree of public ambivalence.
Key National Outlook for 2026
How Kenyans expect the coming year to compare to 2025:
| Outlook for 2026 | Percentage of Kenyans |
|---|---|
| Expect it to be better | 29% |
| Expect it to be the same | 25% |
| Expect it to be worse | 16% |
| Are uncertain / Don’t know | 30% |
Drivers of Pessimism: The Top Concerns
For the nearly half of citizens (49%) who foresee a worsening economy, the following specific issues are causing the most anxiety:
| Primary Concern | Percentage of Pessimists Citing This Issue |
|---|---|
| General economic downturn | 49% |
| Deterioration of personal finances | 34% |
| Business suffering | 16% |
| Job insecurity or loss | 15% |
| Threat of drought | 6% |
A Regional Breakdown of Concerns
Economic anxieties are not felt equally across the country. The data shows clear regional hotspots for different types of worries:
- Economic Conditions: Most concerning in Eastern Kenya (67%), followed by Central (55%) and Nairobi (53%).
- Personal Finances: A top worry in Western (56%) and Central (37%) regions.
- Job Insecurity: Particularly acute in Nairobi (28%) and at the Coast (25%).
- Drought: The dominant fear in North Eastern Kenya, cited by 67% of pessimists there.
Demographic Divides: Gender, Age & Sentiment
The survey uncovered notable patterns based on gender and age:
- Gender Gap: Women (59%) are significantly more likely than men (43%) to believe the economy will worsen. Women also express far more uncertainty (37%) compared to men (24%).
- Generational Outlook: Young adults aged 18–26 are the most optimistic (35% expect improvement), while those over 55 are the most pessimistic (27% expect a worse year).
Widespread Expectation of Rising Costs
Regardless of their overall outlook, most Kenyans are preparing for increases in key household expenses:
| Expected Cost Increase | Percentage of Kenyans |
|---|---|
| Cost of living | 61% |
| School fees | 61% |
| Unemployment | 59% |
| Electricity costs | >50% |
| Energy and fuel prices | 49% |
Survey Methodology
The Infotrak survey was conducted between December 19–20, 2025, using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI). It sampled 1,000 adult Kenyans aged 18 and above across all 47 counties, with a margin of error of ±3.10% at a 95% confidence level.
