Kenyans remain unconvinced that opposition leaders will successfully rally behind a single presidential candidate to challenge President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election, according to a new survey by TIFA Research.
The poll shows that only 38 per cent of respondents believe it is “very likely” that opposition figures seeking to unseat President Ruto will agree on one candidate. The findings highlight deep public scepticism despite continued calls for unity among opposition leaders.
How Kenyans view opposition unity
The survey reveals sharply divided opinions:
- 38% say opposition unity is very likely
- 27% say it is somewhat likely
- 26% believe it is not very likely
- 9% remain undecided
In effect, fewer than four in ten Kenyans are confident that opposition leaders can overcome internal rivalries and personal ambitions to present a single challenger in 2027.
TIFA described the national mood as one of cautious optimism mixed with uncertainty.
“Kenyans are cautiously optimistic but deeply divided about the opposition’s ability to unite behind a single presidential candidate in 2027,” TIFA said.
Voters want action, not promises
The poll suggests that voters are increasingly sceptical of political declarations that are not backed by concrete action. According to TIFA, many Kenyans will only believe in opposition unity once formal coalition agreements are signed and publicly announced.
“Alliances will only be believed once formalised,” the report noted.
Political alignment shapes expectations
Expectations around opposition unity also vary depending on respondents’ political leanings, particularly views on the broad-based government (BBG).
- Among respondents opposed to the broad-based government, 45% say opposition unity is very likely
- Among supporters of the BBG, confidence drops to 33%
- Among those with no clear position on the BBG, only 18% say unity is very likely, while 38% say they are unsure
TIFA noted that these differences appear to be influenced more by political preference than objective assessment.
“Such a contrast, however modest, appears to be driven by wishful thinking,” the poll observed.
No clarity on run-off cooperation
The survey did not distinguish between opposition unity in the first round of voting and possible cooperation in a second-round run-off, leaving open questions about whether fragmented candidates could later regroup.
Changing dynamics after Raila
TIFA also pointed to a shifting political landscape following the absence of Raila Odinga as the dominant opposition figure, suggesting that ODM leaders and supporters may now feel freer to make independent political choices.
“In Raila’s absence, both ODM leaders and followers will be freer to make up their own minds about which party, coalition or presidential candidate to support,” the report concluded.
About the survey
- Conducted: November 10–17, 2025
- Sample size: 2,053 adults
- Coverage: All 47 counties
- Margin of error: ±2.16%
The findings underline the scale of the challenge facing President Ruto’s opponents, with public doubt over unity threatening to shape the 2027 contest long before campaigns officially begin.
