The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has reclaimed its position as Kenya’s most popular political party, overtaking President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), according to a new survey by TIFA Research. However, the findings also reveal deep internal divisions within ODM over the party’s strategy for the 2027 presidential election.
Party popularity: who is leading now?
The nationwide poll, released on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, highlights significant shifts in party loyalty compared to previous years.
- ODM: 20 per cent
– Up from 13 per cent in August 2025
– Down from 32 per cent in the 2022 General Election - UDA: 16 per cent
– Down sharply from 38 per cent in 2022 - Jubilee Party: 11 per cent
– Up from 3 per cent, nearly tripling its support - No party affiliation: 22 per cent
– Down from 31 per cent - Undecided voters: 6 per cent
– Down from 10 per cent
Combined, parties and coalitions aligned to ODM and UDA account for approximately 44 per cent of Kenya’s adult population, underscoring their continued dominance in national politics.
Coalition strength comparison
- Azimio-linked parties: 6 per cent
- Kenya Kwanza-linked parties: 2 per cent
TIFA cautioned that not all Azimio supporters can automatically be counted as ODM loyalists, despite ODM remaining the coalition’s anchor party.
ODM popularity rises, but Ruto support remains weak
Despite ODM’s growing popularity, the poll shows limited appetite among its supporters for backing President Ruto in 2027.
- Only 19 per cent of ODM supporters would like the party to adopt President Ruto as its presidential candidate
- This scenario assumes the UDA or Kenya Kwanza coalition fails to present a candidate of its own
TIFA noted a disconnect between ODM’s leadership posture and the sentiments of its grassroots supporters.
“Only a modest minority of the Orange party’s supporters appear committed to backing President Ruto for a second term,” TIFA observed.
What ODM supporters want in 2027
The survey revealed sharp divisions on how the party should approach the next presidential contest.
- 34 per cent favour ODM fielding one of its own leaders as presidential candidate
- 20 per cent prefer backing another Azimio or opposition figure
- 24 per cent want ODM to support no candidate and allow voters to decide individually
The split highlights growing uncertainty within the party as it navigates life after Raila Odinga and its cooperation with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
Jubilee stages a resurgence
Jubilee Party recorded the most dramatic growth in support, rising from 3 per cent to 11 per cent.
TIFA analysts suggest the surge may be linked to former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s endorsement of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i as Deputy Party Leader, reigniting interest among the party’s support base.
About the survey
- Conducted: November 10–17, 2025
- Sample size: 2,053 adults
- Coverage: All 47 counties
- Margin of error: ±2.16 per cent
The bigger picture
The findings point to a fluid political landscape ahead of the 2027 General Election. While ODM is regaining momentum as UDA loses ground, internal disagreements over leadership and alliances could shape the party’s future direction.
